I’m sure many of you remember the BTC cycle. At the peak people began taking out mortgages and putting all their money straight into cryptocurrency and not 1 month later were smacked in the face by the cruel reality of the supply vs demand. What followed was the 2018 bear market which, for those paying attention, was a learning experience like no other. And then there was the most memorable moment for me, the crash back down, wicking the high of the complacency shoulder, the first structure back out of Armageddon. This resulted in records amount of volume in most crypto charts and a flurry of news and opinions that this was it, it was over. The pandemic of course helping. But now here we are, 60k one year later, almost 20x in 12 months.
Anyway for the chart at hand, what is their to say. Price action wise they are very very similar charts. Does TLRY have to wick back down to ~$10, no it’s not a necessity. I’d actually only give it about a 20% chance of happening. Bitcoins wick may have well been a result of the less regulated, less liquid and 24 hour crypto markets. The SEC can’t halt trading on BTC or its friends, not yet at least. My personal plan which of course is not advice is to have an alert set around $12 and should the moments occur, to load up on 1 or 2 year out options. I will say that right now I am keeping a close eye on this area, $15 for the 2b forming around the structure that occurred in Jan 21’. If price were to build above $27 I would also see that as invalidation of the fractal, or at least a fast forwarding of it. Things have been happening quicker in markets than ever before. You can follow the idea here on Tradingview where I plan to update it as things unfold.
I guess I should also give a somewhat fundamental reason to invest in weed stocks and Tilray but bare in mind, it’s not my forte or passion:
1) CBD and medical advancements.
2) THC and making a population complacent and compliant.
3) Meme strength. 4/20 is a sacred number and a holy day now.
4) Cultural influence. Most modern idols include it as part of their personality.
5) Legalization still spreading.
Anyway for now, for my first Substack post as I procrastinate work on a sunny Thursday afternoon in the country side …
fin
That’s always been the beauty of crypto, it’s the Hyperbolic Time Chamber of trading. You learn things at a much quicker rate, if you’re being mindful about what’s happening.